Rivals Barangay Ginebra and Magnolia Chicken Timplados Hotshots tussle in a best-of-five semifinals series in the 2022 PBA Commissioner’s Cup.
Team Stats Comparison
Import Matchup
-
Nick Rakocevic
24.6 points, 18.6 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 1.1 blocks, 53.1% True Shooting
-
Justin Brownlee
28.2 points, 10.5 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.2 blocks, 53.5% True Shooting
Local Catalysts
-
Jio Jalalon
11.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 2.4 steals
-
Scottie Thompson
11.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.7 steals
Which offense wins out?
Magnolia and Ginebra both boast Top 5 offenses, and they have a bevy of capable playmakers who can initiate their sets. Both teams are also very deliberate in executing their halfcourt sets; Ginebra plays at the third-lowest pace this conference, while Magnolia runs the fourth-lowest pace.
Offensive execution and taking care of the ball will be key in this “Manila Clasico” semifinals duel. Ginebra has to be wary of Magnolia’s knack for forcing their opponents to commit turnovers. Spearheaded by Jio Jalalon (league-best 2.4 steals), Magnolia is the best in the league in forcing opponent turnovers (19.2). When they faced each other in the elimination round, the Gin Kings committed a total of 24 turnovers. Luckily for them, the Hotshots shot horridly from the field, allowing Ginebra to escape with a six-point win.
Magnolia should also put a premium on taking good care of the rock. Ginebra doesn’t force a lot of turnovers as Magnolia does, but they almost always score when they run on the break. The Gin Kings average the highest fastbreak points this conference (16.1), making 9.3 of their 10.7 fastbreak attempts. With the likes of Jamie Malonzo or Scottie Thompson, Ginebra can certainly take advantage of opponent miscues and finish in transition.
Other Important Notes
- Magnolia star Paul Lee has sustained his fine shooting the entire conference. He's shooting 42% (6.1 attempts) from the three-point line heading into the semifinals battle against Ginebra.
- Ginebra veteran guard LA Tenorio has seen his workload increase in the past few games. He's logging a career-low 22.8 minutes this conference, but he's been more active in the playoffs. Tenorio averaged close to 30 minutes in the two quarterfinals games against NorthPort, tallying 13.0 points, 4.0 assists, and a 53.3% clip (8-of-15) from beyond the arc.
- Ginebra has to be wary of Magnolia's activity on the offensive boards. Rakocevic is averaging 7.8 offensive rebounds per game, and Ian Sangalang, Calvin Abueva, and Aris Dionisio are joining the party as well. Paul Lee gets a lot of open three-point looks off an offensive rebound, so the Gin Kings need to always have their eyes on him.
Prediction: Ginebra books a Finals ticket
This will be a grueling battle between two teams who rank in the Top 5 in both offensive and defensive ratings. It won’t be a surprise if each game goes down the wire.
If the Ginebra big men (Japeth Aguilar, Christian Standhardinger) steer clear of foul trouble to avoid Nick Rakocevic easily dominating them in the paint, they’ll have a good chance of winning games in regulation. Having a big-time shot-maker in Justin Brownlee should help Ginebra escape in the clutch.
If they get it together and avoid early large deficits against Magnolia, Ginebra should be able to win this series and advance to the Finals.
